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Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction, Head-to-Head, Odds & Pick - Matchstat.com
By Wojtek Kolan
At Matchstat.com we give you unbeatable in-depth analysis of past and current event tennis stats, to give you accurate tennis predictions, picks, odds and value bets. Let's dive in with our Alcaraz vs Medvedev analysis and find out who is favored!
Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Important H2H Prediction Stats:
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 4 - 2 Medvedev
- Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Alcaraz has won 57.65% of points on their second serve, while Medvedev has won 49.32%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
- Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Alcaraz, in recent form, has won 57.52% of their opponent's second serve points, while Medvedev has won 53.03%. The same stats for first serve returns are 36.32% and 32.82% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
- Under pressure analysis: Alcaraz has saved 63.29% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Medvedev has saved 60.32% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
- Performance overview: Over the last year Alcaraz has won 79.1% of matches played (W/L 53/ 14), with Medvedev winning 73.24% (W/L 52/ 19) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
- Best surface: Alcaraz has their best career surface win % on Grass, winning 85% (W/L 17/ 3), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 57% (W/L 13/ 10). Medvedev has their best career surface win % on Hard, winning 76% (W/L 237/ 74), and worse career win % on Clay, winning 64% (W/L 85/ 47).
- Player level: In the last year, Alcaraz has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 76.92% of matches (W/L 20/ 6), where as Medvedev has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 66.67% of matches (W/L 18/ 9). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
- Direct H2H matches: They have played 6 times before with Alcaraz winning 4 times and Medvedev being victorious 2 times. They have played 16 sets in total, with Alcaraz winning 10 and Medvedev winning 6. The last match between Alcaraz and Medvedev was at the BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells, 17-03-2024, Final, Hard with Carlos Alcaraz getting the victory 7-6(5) 6-1.
- Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 1:49:33.
- Deciding set H2H prediction: Alcaraz and Medvedev have played a deciding set 0 times, with Alcaraz winning 0 times and Medvedev 0 times. Very useful for predicting the outcome if this match goes the distance.
- Head-to-Head extreme pressure situations: They have played 2 tiebreaks against each other with Alcaraz winning 1, and Medvedev 1.
- Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Alcaraz has played against opponents with an average rank of 98.28 while Medvedev has played against players with an average rank of 99.52.
- Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Alcaraz has won 72% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Medvedev has won 67% in all matches played on tour.
- Break point conversion: In recent form, Alcaraz has converted 45.28% of breakpoint opportunities, and Medvedev has converted 44.74% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.
- If you are interested in models that predict tennis matches, this article is a good start (Warning: Stats geeks only)
3
Rank
1
High
21
Age
R
Plays
4
Total2
2
Hard1
0
Clay0
1
Indoor0
1
Grass1
5
Rank
1
High
28
Age
R
Plays
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
L
Form
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
L
79% (256-69)
Career Total W/L
71% (516-206)
81% (26-6)
YTD W/L
75% (27-9)
$21,343,630
Career Prize Money
$29,373,910
2
YTD Titles
0
Currently displayed stats includes matches of all levels. To exclude lower level events (as per ATP / WTA official stats) toggle button in page footer.
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| stats | Carlos Alcaraz | Daniil Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| All H2H Matches | 4 | 2 |
| Sets Won | 10 | 6 |
| Games Won | 78 | 69 |
| Aces (Total) | 13 | 26 |
| DFs Total | 10 | 25 |
| Avg Match Time | 1:49:33 | 1:49:33 |
| 1st Serve % | 70% (322/461) | 63% (287/456) |
| 1st Serve Win% | 71% (230/322) | 75% (216/287) |
| 2nd Serve Win% | 51% (71/139) | 43% (72/169) |
| BPs Won% (Total) | 39% (17/44) | 43% (13/30) |
| Return Points W% | 37% (168/456) | 35% (160/461) |
| Best of 3 Sets W% | 100% (3/3) | 0% (0/3) |
| Best of 5 Sets W% | 33% (1/3) | 67% (2/3) |
| TBs Win% (Total) | 50% (1/2) | 50% (1/2) |
| Deciding Set Win% | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| 1st set W, W | 100% (4/4) | 100% (2/2) |
| 1st set W, L | 0% (4/0) | 0% (2/0) |
| 1st set L, W | 0% (2/0) | 0% (4/0) |
| Winning Player | Losing Player | Score | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7-6(5) 6-1 |
Stats 
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Daniil Medvedev
65%
(
40 of
62)
1st Serve %
61%
(
48 of
79)
3
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
3
75%
(
30 of
40)
1st Serve Won
63%
(
30 of
48)
68%
(
15 of
22)
2nd Serve Won
45%
(
14 of
31)
30%
(
3 of
10)
Break Points Won
50%
(
1 of
2)
27%
(
17 of
62)
Rtn Points Won
44%
(
35 of
79)
80
Total Points Won
61
|
||||
| 6-4 6-4 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Daniil Medvedev
73%
(
41 of
56)
1st Serve %
68%
(
38 of
56)
3
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
3
76%
(
31 of
41)
1st Serve Won
74%
(
28 of
38)
67%
(
10 of
15)
2nd Serve Won
44%
(
8 of
18)
40%
(
2 of
5)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
2)
27%
(
15 of
56)
Rtn Points Won
36%
(
20 of
56)
61
Total Points Won
51
|
||||
| 7-6(3) 6-1 3-6 6-3 |
Stats
Daniil Medvedev
Player
Carlos Alcaraz
64%
(
83 of
129)
1st Serve %
70%
(
93 of
133)
9
Aces
0
10
Double Faults
0
82%
(
68 of
83)
1st Serve Won
69%
(
64 of
93)
50%
(
23 of
46)
2nd Serve Won
48%
(
19 of
40)
43%
(
3 of
7)
Break Points Won
11%
(
1 of
9)
29%
(
38 of
129)
Rtn Points Won
38%
(
50 of
133)
141
Total Points Won
121
|
||||
| 6-3 6-3 6-3 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Daniil Medvedev
71%
(
56 of
79)
1st Serve %
59%
(
47 of
80)
4
Aces
5
3
Double Faults
4
73%
(
41 of
56)
1st Serve Won
70%
(
33 of
47)
57%
(
13 of
23)
2nd Serve Won
30%
(
10 of
33)
43%
(
6 of
14)
Break Points Won
50%
(
2 of
4)
32%
(
25 of
79)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
37 of
80)
91
Total Points Won
68
|
||||
| 6-3 6-2 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Daniil Medvedev
76%
(
37 of
49)
1st Serve %
65%
(
31 of
48)
1
Aces
0
0
Double Faults
2
81%
(
30 of
37)
1st Serve Won
61%
(
19 of
31)
58%
(
7 of
12)
2nd Serve Won
41%
(
7 of
17)
100%
(
3 of
3)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
0)
24%
(
12 of
49)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
22 of
48)
59
Total Points Won
38
|
||||
| 6-4 6-1 6-2 |
Stats
Daniil Medvedev
Player
Carlos Alcaraz
63%
(
40 of
64)
1st Serve %
67%
(
55 of
82)
6
Aces
2
3
Double Faults
5
95%
(
38 of
40)
1st Serve Won
62%
(
34 of
55)
42%
(
10 of
24)
2nd Serve Won
26%
(
7 of
27)
47%
(
7 of
15)
Break Points Won
67%
(
2 of
3)
25%
(
16 of
64)
Rtn Points Won
50%
(
41 of
82)
89
Total Points Won
57
|
||||
Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents
| stats | Carlos Alcaraz | Daniil Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| YTD W/L | 81% (26/6) | 75% (27/9) |
| Sets Win/Loss | 76% (65/20) | 66% (66/34) |
| Games Win/Loss | 60% (466/312) | 54% (524/452) |
| Hard Win/Loss | 87% (13/2) | 82% (18/4) |
| Clay Win/Loss | 80% (12/3) | 67% (8/4) |
| Indoor Hard W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Grass Win/Loss | 50% (1/1) | 50% (1/1) |
| Aces pg | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| Aces Total | 102 | 214 |
| DFs per game | 0.16 | 0.3 |
| DFs Total | 61 | 144 |
| Avg Match Time | 1st Match | 2:7:24 |
| Avg Opp Rank | 121.47 | 109.97 |
| 1st Serve % | 67% (1590/2366) | 62% (1890/3070) |
| 1st Serve W% | 72% (1138/1590) | 73% (1372/1890) |
| 2nd Serve W% | 57% (443/776) | 49% (582/1180) |
| BPs Won% Total | 45% (133/295) | 45% (136/304) |
| Return Pts W% | 44% (1113/2550) | 40% (1264/3150) |
| Slam W/L | 92% (11/1) | 82% (9/2) |
| Masters W/L | 86% (12/2) | 74% (14/5) |
| Cups W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Main Tour W/L | 50% (3/3) | 67% (4/2) |
| Tour Finals W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Challenger W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Futures W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Best of 3 Sets W% | 79% (15/19) | 76% (19/25) |
| Best of 5 Sets W% | 92% (11/12) | 80% (8/10) |
| TBs Win% (Total) | 62% (8/13) | 80% (12/15) |
| Deciding Set W% | 83% (5/6) | 80% (8/10) |
| 1st set W, W | 96% (24/23) | 91% (22/20) |
| 1st set W, L | 4% (24/1) | 9% (22/2) |
| 1st set L, W | 43% (7/3) | 50% (14/7) |
Carlos Alcaraz Recent Matches Played
Before:
| OPPONENT | Score | H2H | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R2 |
Stats
Jack Draper
Player
Carlos Alcaraz
59%
(
39 of
66)
1st Serve %
67%
(
50 of
75)
8
Aces
7
3
Double Faults
1
82%
(
32 of
39)
1st Serve Won
76%
(
38 of
50)
67%
(
18 of
27)
2nd Serve Won
48%
(
12 of
25)
25%
(
1 of
4)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
1)
24%
(
16 of
66)
Rtn Points Won
33%
(
25 of
75)
75
Total Points Won
66
|
7-6(3) 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Francisco Cerundolo
59%
(
33 of
56)
1st Serve %
56%
(
30 of
54)
2
Aces
1
3
Double Faults
3
79%
(
26 of
33)
1st Serve Won
57%
(
17 of
30)
65%
(
15 of
23)
2nd Serve Won
46%
(
11 of
24)
50%
(
4 of
8)
Break Points Won
25%
(
1 of
4)
27%
(
15 of
56)
Rtn Points Won
48%
(
26 of
54)
67
Total Points Won
43
|
6-1 7-5 | H2H | ||
| F |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Alexander Zverev
60%
(
96 of
159)
1st Serve %
73%
(
97 of
133)
3
Aces
8
6
Double Faults
6
65%
(
62 of
96)
1st Serve Won
63%
(
61 of
97)
49%
(
31 of
63)
2nd Serve Won
33%
(
12 of
36)
56%
(
9 of
16)
Break Points Won
26%
(
6 of
23)
42%
(
66 of
159)
Rtn Points Won
45%
(
60 of
133)
153
Total Points Won
139
|
6-3 2-6 5-7 6-1 6-2 | H2H | ||
| SF |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Jannik Sinner
66%
(
103 of
157)
1st Serve %
56%
(
76 of
135)
8
Aces
7
7
Double Faults
8
66%
(
68 of
103)
1st Serve Won
74%
(
56 of
76)
46%
(
25 of
54)
2nd Serve Won
46%
(
27 of
59)
43%
(
6 of
14)
Break Points Won
60%
(
6 of
10)
41%
(
64 of
157)
Rtn Points Won
39%
(
52 of
135)
145
Total Points Won
147
|
2-6 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3 | H2H | ||
| QF |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Stefanos Tsitsipas
73%
(
61 of
84)
1st Serve %
61%
(
60 of
98)
3
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
4
74%
(
45 of
61)
1st Serve Won
65%
(
39 of
60)
74%
(
17 of
23)
2nd Serve Won
53%
(
20 of
38)
67%
(
4 of
6)
Break Points Won
50%
(
1 of
2)
26%
(
22 of
84)
Rtn Points Won
40%
(
39 of
98)
101
Total Points Won
81
|
6-3 7-6(3) 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R4 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Felix Auger Aliassime
67%
(
53 of
79)
1st Serve %
57%
(
48 of
84)
1
Aces
0
2
Double Faults
5
75%
(
40 of
53)
1st Serve Won
60%
(
29 of
48)
54%
(
14 of
26)
2nd Serve Won
39%
(
14 of
36)
38%
(
6 of
16)
Break Points Won
20%
(
1 of
5)
32%
(
25 of
79)
Rtn Points Won
49%
(
41 of
84)
95
Total Points Won
68
|
6-3 6-3 6-1 | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Sebastian Korda
78%
(
70 of
90)
1st Serve %
58%
(
72 of
124)
3
Aces
1
0
Double Faults
2
73%
(
51 of
70)
1st Serve Won
61%
(
44 of
72)
65%
(
13 of
20)
2nd Serve Won
48%
(
25 of
52)
33%
(
4 of
12)
Break Points Won
67%
(
2 of
3)
29%
(
26 of
90)
Rtn Points Won
44%
(
55 of
124)
119
Total Points Won
95
|
6-4 7-6(5) 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Jesper De Jong
70%
(
78 of
112)
1st Serve %
58%
(
72 of
124)
2
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
7
64%
(
50 of
78)
1st Serve Won
56%
(
40 of
72)
50%
(
17 of
34)
2nd Serve Won
44%
(
23 of
52)
44%
(
8 of
18)
Break Points Won
42%
(
5 of
12)
40%
(
45 of
112)
Rtn Points Won
49%
(
61 of
124)
128
Total Points Won
108
|
6-3 6-4 2-6 6-2 | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Jeff Wolf
70%
(
47 of
67)
1st Serve %
56%
(
37 of
66)
5
Aces
0
1
Double Faults
1
70%
(
33 of
47)
1st Serve Won
46%
(
17 of
37)
65%
(
13 of
20)
2nd Serve Won
28%
(
8 of
29)
64%
(
9 of
14)
Break Points Won
29%
(
2 of
7)
31%
(
21 of
67)
Rtn Points Won
62%
(
41 of
66)
87
Total Points Won
46
|
6-1 6-2 6-1 | H2H | ||
| QF |
Stats
Andrey Rublev
Player
Carlos Alcaraz
74%
(
64 of
86)
1st Serve %
70%
(
57 of
81)
5
Aces
1
2
Double Faults
2
80%
(
51 of
64)
1st Serve Won
60%
(
34 of
57)
45%
(
10 of
22)
2nd Serve Won
71%
(
17 of
24)
23%
(
3 of
13)
Break Points Won
13%
(
1 of
8)
29%
(
25 of
86)
Rtn Points Won
37%
(
30 of
81)
91
Total Points Won
76
|
4-6 6-3 6-2 | H2H | ||
view more
Daniil Medvedev Recent Matches Played
Before:
| OPPONENT | Score | H2H | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R2 |
Stats
Zhizhen Zhang
Player
Daniil Medvedev
67%
(
71 of
106)
1st Serve %
63%
(
58 of
92)
12
Aces
13
4
Double Faults
5
72%
(
51 of
71)
1st Serve Won
81%
(
47 of
58)
49%
(
17 of
35)
2nd Serve Won
44%
(
15 of
34)
40%
(
2 of
5)
Break Points Won
60%
(
3 of
5)
36%
(
38 of
106)
Rtn Points Won
33%
(
30 of
92)
98
Total Points Won
100
|
6-3 2-6 7-6(5) | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Daniil Medvedev
Player
Nuno Borges
60%
(
45 of
75)
1st Serve %
72%
(
49 of
68)
9
Aces
7
4
Double Faults
2
76%
(
34 of
45)
1st Serve Won
76%
(
37 of
49)
57%
(
17 of
30)
2nd Serve Won
42%
(
8 of
19)
50%
(
2 of
4)
Break Points Won
17%
(
1 of
6)
32%
(
24 of
75)
Rtn Points Won
34%
(
23 of
68)
74
Total Points Won
69
|
7-6(4) 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R4 |
Stats
Alex De Minaur
Player
Daniil Medvedev
54%
(
55 of
101)
1st Serve %
57%
(
65 of
114)
7
Aces
7
3
Double Faults
2
76%
(
42 of
55)
1st Serve Won
62%
(
40 of
65)
57%
(
26 of
46)
2nd Serve Won
45%
(
22 of
49)
50%
(
7 of
14)
Break Points Won
20%
(
2 of
10)
33%
(
33 of
101)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
52 of
114)
120
Total Points Won
95
|
4-6 6-2 6-1 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Daniil Medvedev
Player
Tomas Machac
62%
(
93 of
149)
1st Serve %
63%
(
86 of
136)
14
Aces
3
9
Double Faults
2
66%
(
61 of
93)
1st Serve Won
60%
(
52 of
86)
50%
(
28 of
56)
2nd Serve Won
58%
(
29 of
50)
50%
(
5 of
10)
Break Points Won
33%
(
5 of
15)
40%
(
60 of
149)
Rtn Points Won
40%
(
55 of
136)
144
Total Points Won
141
|
7-6(4) 7-5 1-6 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Daniil Medvedev
Player
Miomir Kecmanovic
87%
(
27 of
31)
1st Serve %
59%
(
26 of
44)
6
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
1
85%
(
23 of
27)
1st Serve Won
50%
(
13 of
26)
25%
(
1 of
4)
2nd Serve Won
28%
(
5 of
18)
56%
(
5 of
9)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
0)
23%
(
7 of
31)
Rtn Points Won
59%
(
26 of
44)
50
Total Points Won
25
|
6-1 5-0 ret. | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Daniil Medvedev
Player
Dominik Koepfer
68%
(
73 of
108)
1st Serve %
65%
(
88 of
135)
1
Aces
2
3
Double Faults
5
77%
(
56 of
73)
1st Serve Won
57%
(
50 of
88)
43%
(
15 of
35)
2nd Serve Won
47%
(
22 of
47)
64%
(
7 of
11)
Break Points Won
100%
(
4 of
4)
34%
(
37 of
108)
Rtn Points Won
47%
(
63 of
135)
134
Total Points Won
109
|
6-3 6-4 5-7 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R4 |
Stats
Tommy Paul
Player
Daniil Medvedev
67%
(
39 of
58)
1st Serve %
45%
(
19 of
42)
2
Aces
1
0
Double Faults
2
59%
(
23 of
39)
1st Serve Won
58%
(
11 of
19)
74%
(
14 of
19)
2nd Serve Won
43%
(
10 of
23)
83%
(
5 of
6)
Break Points Won
40%
(
2 of
5)
36%
(
21 of
58)
Rtn Points Won
50%
(
21 of
42)
58
Total Points Won
42
|
6-1 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Daniil Medvedev
Player
Jack Draper
50%
(
35 of
70)
1st Serve %
48%
(
32 of
66)
3
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
3
83%
(
29 of
35)
1st Serve Won
66%
(
21 of
32)
40%
(
14 of
35)
2nd Serve Won
41%
(
14 of
34)
56%
(
5 of
9)
Break Points Won
30%
(
3 of
10)
39%
(
27 of
70)
Rtn Points Won
47%
(
31 of
66)
74
Total Points Won
62
|
7-5 6-4 | H2H | ||
| QF |
Stats
Jiri Lehecka
Player
Daniil Medvedev
67%
(
16 of
24)
1st Serve %
70%
(
23 of
33)
2
Aces
1
0
Double Faults
1
94%
(
15 of
16)
1st Serve Won
65%
(
15 of
23)
63%
(
5 of
8)
2nd Serve Won
60%
(
6 of
10)
33%
(
1 of
3)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
0)
17%
(
4 of
24)
Rtn Points Won
36%
(
12 of
33)
32
Total Points Won
25
|
6-4 ret. | H2H | ||
| R4 |
Stats
Daniil Medvedev
Player
Alexander Bublik
57%
(
37 of
65)
1st Serve %
57%
(
46 of
81)
0
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
4
68%
(
25 of
37)
1st Serve Won
72%
(
33 of
46)
61%
(
17 of
28)
2nd Serve Won
34%
(
12 of
35)
75%
(
3 of
4)
Break Points Won
50%
(
2 of
4)
35%
(
23 of
65)
Rtn Points Won
44%
(
36 of
81)
78
Total Points Won
68
|
7-6(3) 6-4 | H2H | ||
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Alcaraz Vs Medvedev Prediction H2H Images To Share
More tennis photos of Alcaraz are available here and Medvedev photos here.
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